Australian Dollars and New Zealand offer the safest currencies

Published on in Foreign Exchange News by

Foreign Exchange Overnight /Morning Ranges :

Rates EUR/USD 1.4468-1.4536

Rates GBP/USD 1.6388-1.6438

Rates GBP/USD 1.6386-1.6439

The US Dollar was like a tennis game at wimbledon this morning as the foreign exchange market for the U.S. dollar has been rebounding against the euro, British pound, Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc but weakening against the Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The persistent strength of the AUD and NZD are tied directly to last night’s stronger Australian economic reports and the general perception that aside from the Franc, Australia and New Zealand offer the safest currencies due to a stable political picture and a steady economy have driven the Australian and New Zealand dollars to fresh record highs.

At the same time, disappointments in U.S. economic data leaves a lot to be desired from the U.S. economy as well as fiscal and monetary policy. Durable goods fell 2.1 percent in the month of June, which was much worse than the market had anticipated. Economists were looking for orders to rise by 0.3 percent, but the decline erases all of the past month’s gains. However excluding a sharp drop in nondefense aircraft orders, durable goods actually rose 0.1 percent. Unfortunately despite this increase, inventories were the smallest since March 2010 and the overall report creates more concern than optimism. We expect this sentiment to be shared in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve Beige Book, so anyone hoping for some help from the Fed, will have to keep on looking. The Fed has no interest in getting in the middle of the fiscal battle and taking the focus off the debt talks would only exacerbate the problems for the dollar because there are more negative than positive comments to be made about the outlook for the U.S. economy. In other words, with the dollar continuing to slide, the Fed probably feels that if they have nothing positive to say, it is probably better not to say anything at all.

Sterling jumped to a six-week high against a broadly weaker dollar and made ground throughout the day against the euro on Tuesday after data showed the UK economy grew by 0.2% in the 2nd quarter. Although UK growth was tepid  the number was met with relief by the market as some investors had positioned for something weaker, with traders saying talk had been circulating ahead of the release that the data could show a contraction.

Sterling’s gains were aided by a slump in the dollar as U.S. lawmakers remained deadlocked in talks over raising the debt ceiling only a week before a deadline to act. The dollar’s woes continued in early trading this morning as it sank to a 3 month low

 

against a basket of major currencies.

EUR/USD currently 1.4495. Support 1.4350, resistance 1.4650

GBP/USD currently 1.6405. Support 1.6325 ,resistance 1.6475

GBP/EUR currently 1.1315. Support 1.1260 , resistance 1.1350

 

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